Little overview of quantitative easing

SO I can't remember where I got this material so don't sue me. I will Italics it for whoever came out with the ideas.

Quantitative Easing: used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. [Investopedia]

Q: What will happen to the government securities once rates increas? Once the economy recovers and stocks increase?

Quantitative easing will flood financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity. Central banks tend to use quantitative easing when interest rates have already been lowered to near 0% levels and have failed to produce the desired effect.

The major risk of quantitative easing is that although more money is floating around, there is still a fixed amount of goods for sale. This will eventually lead to higher prices or inflation.

So this expansionary monetary policy that is happening in key global economies of the US, China, Japan, and Europe will place increased pressure on the output gap (Actual output - potential output). BUY! is the message that central banks are stating worldwide, yet the only to-do shopping lists seem to be focused around commodities, bonds, stocks, and emerging market economies. INVESTMENTS have recovered but not the fundamental consumer piece that fuels the economy. Gilts, for example, are bonds issued by the governments of the UK, South Africa, or Ireland. 2/3 of gilts are held by insurance companies and pension funds.

In 2009, large quantities of filts have been purchased by the Bank of England under its policy of quantitative easing.

In essense, this represents a benign facade of investor enthusiasm in the markets, fueled by taxpayers (government securities bought by the government!?) and insurance. Insurance, on an industry outlook worldwide view, will experience very healthy returns some of the biggest players lost over 100 million euros due to record defaults this past year. Healthy premiums and a heightened need for security will raise revenues and defaults will be stagnant for the next few years. So they are in a stable position to purchase these securities without taking on additional debt.

Don't cut corners with your supplier

Another excerpt from John Wiley Spiers' "How Small Business Trades Worldwide" (2001)

Another way suppliers can cut corners to make up the loss of revenue is to ship you defective goods. Normally, if your order is for, say, 2,000 pieces, they would make 2,200 pieces, sort out the defectives, and ship you 2,000 excellent items. (The other 200 pieces they can sell to some poor fool who comes from the United States and says, "do you have something cool I can sell and make a killing?") But if you squeeze the supplier on price, they might make you 2,000 pieces, ship you 2,000 pieces, and you can pay the freight, taxes (duty) on the defectives and have to sort them out yourself.

The bottom line is that you must never deny the supplier just compensation for his efforts.

Business meeting at Dinner

More stuff from John Wiley Spiers' "How Small Business Trades Worldwide" (2001).

Quick Lesson: Organize around the opportunity, not a resource.

So say you find an overseas supplier and they wish to meet with you in your homeland.

If "the feel" is right, move into the bar after dinner to discuss the business, and if appropriate, hammer out agreements on the ten points mentioned next.

As the waitroid is seating you and your guest(s) at a table in the bar excuse yourself and say you will join them in a minute. When your guests are out of earshot, instruct the bartender that whenever you order a gin and tonic, the bartender is to pour you only the tonic. And whatever your guests order, the bartender is to make them doubles. Then return to your guests, order drinks, and get down to the serious business of hammering out some solid business agreements. (This is precisely what they will do to you overseas).

The Innovator/conservator paradigm.

Here are some interesting excerpts from John Wiley Spiers' "How Small Business Trades Worldwide" (2001).

The Innovator/conservator paradigm.

In 1976, Apple introduced the personal computer to the marketplace. Jobs and Wozniak, Apple's founders, have a letter from executives turning their idea down when they offered it to Hewlett Packard. IBM certainly had the capital and technological resources to introduce a personal computer that year if they had wanted to do so. But in 1976 there was no interest, and [Peter F.] Drucker explains why: no mainstream conservator company is going to risk his 9-5, weekends free, country club membership, good salary, health insurance and pension plan on a risky venture.

After innovation such as a personal computer does gain popularity, the the conservators step in, as IBM did, with their version of the PC [1981]. And when they moved in, they took the lion's share of the PC market. But this is a very important point to remember: IBM did not introduce the PC until 1981. As fiercely competitive as the computer business is, Apple was virtually alone in the market for five years!

After IBM stole the lion's share of the PC market, the then-new Macintosh line assured the survival of Apple Computer.

Never bother "protecting" your ideas as an innovator. Worry about the customer's needs.

Healthcare Bill

From Reuters.

"The impact of this vote will long outlive this one frantic, snowy weekend in Washington," Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell said. "This legislation will reshape our nation, and Americans have already issued their verdict -- they don't want it."

"What the American people ought to pray is that someone can't make the vote tonight," Republican Senator Tom Coburn said beforehand. Democrats control 60 votes, the exact number needed to overcome united Republican opposition.

The Senate bill would require most Americans to have insurance, extend coverage to 30 million uninsured Americans and provide subsidies to help some pay for it.

Also included is an increase in the bill's Medicare payroll tax from 0.5 percent to 0.9 percent on income over $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for couples.

Obama and Latin America

He shook Hugo Chavez's hand with a smile...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYVYNWEoCUs
He called Ecuador's Rafael Correa, a supporter of the FARC, to "congratulate" him on his recent re-election...
He wanted Manuel Zelaya to return to Honduras after the Central-American president was deposed...kicked out of his own country!... for violating the Honduran Constitution. Zelaya has been following Hugo Chavez's footsteps.
White House Council member Gregory Craig is advising Barrack Obama on Latin-American relations. Mr. Craig was the lawyer for Fidel Castro in 2000's U.S. vs Cuba Elian Gonzalez case.

Wall Street Journal. (Eastern edition). New York, N.Y.: Jul 27, 2009. pg. A.13

Money from trees

Goldman Sachs: $40 billion in securities sold tied to risky mortgages between 2006 and 2007 even while secretly short selling on those securities sold. -McClatchy

CEO of Goldman Sach's - Lloyd Blankfein

Kevin G Hall
Moody's Investor's Service
Key player in the financial crisis
Underwriters, mostly Newscentury, Ameriquest, Countrywide passed their mortgages to big investment banks such as Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, and others. These investment banks worked with the ratings service agencies to package pools of mortgages into securities that would become collaterlized loan obligations or mortgage backed securities, essentially loans backed by mortgage payments. The buyers of these mortgage backed securities were usually pension funds, retirement funds, charitable endowments, and institutional investors. Many of these buyers were restricted to buy only top-rated securities. History shows that ratings were "made to order". Consequentially, Moody's revenue's grew to $2 billion in 2006. Moody's stock price from $13 in 2000 to above $72 in early 2007. The stock has since fallen by almost $50/share.

Che overview

*Kleptocracy - applies to a government "that extends the personal wealth and political power of government officials and the ruling class (collectively, kleptocrats) at the expense of the population, sometimes without even the pretense of honest service." - wiki

*coup d'état - a sudden decisive exercise of force in politics

*Jacobo Arbenz Guzmán - Guatemalan military officer and politician, president from 1951 - 1954 until he was ousted by a coup d'état in which the US replaced him with a military junta, headed by Colonel Carlos Castillo. Arbenz had attempted to end the Latifundia system.

*Latifundia system - pieces of property covering tremendous areas. Often called haciendas in Latin America. Similarities with the Roman latifundia. Blamed for economic inequality and strife.

*26th of July Movement - In 1959, Fidel Castro led a revolution to overthrow the Fulgencio Batista government in Cuba. The name originates from the failed attack on the Moncada Barracks in 1953, an army facility in the city of Santiago de Cuba. The movement was reorganized in Mexico in 1955 by a group of 82 exiled revolutionaries (Fidel Castro, Raul Castro, and Che among others). Batista eventually fled Cuba in 1959.

*AWOL - absent without leave, abandonment of duty without permission from one's government

EPM

from the Architectual Record

"Architect Giancarlo Mazzanti’s Biblioteca España [record, November 2008, page 138], completed in 2007, is one of the 10 «park-libraries» built as part of the social plan for the city’s most neglected sections."

"In 1999, they [EPM] commissioned the first important urban project in Medellín’s financial center: Parque de los Pies Descalzos, or Barefoot Park, by architect Felipe Uribe de Bedout."

"In 2004, Uribe’s EPM Library and Parque de la Luz, by architect Juan Manuel Peláez, rose side by side in the financial district." "Bedecked with 300 concrete-and-steel masts, which have an average height of 72 feet and are equipped with LEDs, the park changes in mood and appearance throughout the day and the year, according to the position of the sun and the shadows cast. Because of financial constraints, however, the masts are not regularly illuminated, as originally envisioned."

"According to national statistics, in 1991 the number of homicides in Medellín was 381 for every 100,000 inhabitants. By 2005 that number had dropped to 34. The role of strategic city planning and dynamic architecture in this dramatic change is undeniable."

^by Jimena Martignoni is based in Buenos Aires and writes on Latin American architecture and landscape design.

View from the biblioteca

School is not in session. But just take a look at this view! Honestly, I'm almost glad that Americans are scared to travel here because it adds to Colombia's authenticity. This city is for the people. No tourist traps, no rollercoasters. During my first conversation with the other "foreign" exchange students in my class, it was mentioned that the people here [Colombia] were particularly more friendly than other places in South America. I asked my dad about this and he said that it may be because of the support for President Álvaro Uribe. Having been described as one of the best Presidents in Colombia over the past 100 years, Uribe was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom bestowed by President George Bush on January 13, 2009. His ratings were estimated around 70% after his second year in office (and that's after winning the 2002 election with 53%).

Based on a 2004 Boston Globe article and referenced in Wikipedia, "According to official government statistical information from August 2004, in two years, homicides, kidnappings, and terrorist attacks in Colombia decreased by as much as 50% - their lowest levels in almost 20 years. In 2003, there were 7,000 fewer homicides than in 2002 - a decrease of 27%. By April 2004, the government had established a permanent police or military presence in every Colombian municipality for the first time in decades."



This blog post doesn't do justice to what Uribe has done for Colombia, or the progress that Colombia has taken over the past decade. For now, I'll say that my trip, 5 days now, has been worth every penny.

Management as a profession

So I think the trick to blogging is that you just have to write what you feel and not do too much thinking or try to word it perfectly or spend months doing research before you release the post. Management can share a similar ideology. Every manager is faced with a balance of action, risk assessment, and moral judgment among every problem they face.

I just read an interesting article from the Economist about how some Harvard MBA students set up an oath for this year's graduating class. The oath, as you might guess, calls for moral integrity and avoiding selfish greed. Almost half of the 400 students signed up during an unofficial ceremony. The oath was supported by some HBS professors who observe, "They [the students] want to get away from the cartoon image of business that they are taught in the classroom, to get useful practical advice on how to lead a firm in the 21st century."

I recall during the first month of my undergraduate career, creating a project on corporate virtues. In my case, Newman's Own donates all proceeds to charity. Quickly after that project, those ideas of moral integrity began to fade into the widespread, Milton Friedman belief that the sole mission of business is to maximize shareholder value. So, quite quickly, we see two bubbles that focus on the return to the investor and the return to "the enterprise and the society it serves."

Can business professors provide the guidance needed to obtain the gray in the middle? Focusing on shareholder value puts emphasis on short term profitability, market gains. Shareholders "who feel that managers have not acted in their best interest can sue them." Yet business schools are meant to produce leaders, not the ticket towards profit-or-die wave pool. Global cooperation is somewhere lost in the spectrum. It seems that the only way to provide substantial philanthropy is to become Microsoft (monopoloy, Bill Gates never attended business school), or Wal-Mart (low wages, child-labor). While it costs money to make money, does it also cost morals to enhance social welfare?

The other question relates to what value managers actually bring to an organization. My friend Joe Pelletier believes that, while leadership skills can be transferable across industries and organizations, experiential learning is what will produce exceptional leaders. "It is easy to perceive managers as having no technical skills, relative to professions like IT, doctors, lawyers, etc. It's a general problem for business schools."

The need to reform the MBA is prevalent among our generation. The need for social enhancement is seen as a primary concern among my peers. The ability to socially connect has led us to permit transparency and "enhance our brand" as Dan Schwabel would say. The MBA has not stood up to its requirement for trust. While almost no entrepreneurs pursue an MBA, legislation calling for greater transparency along with management certifications in business ethics may ameliorate the integrity of the degree. While some countries host unethical businesses, the U.S. may hold the political and social will capable of rebuilding the strength needed to lead us into the next era of globalization.

On my plane ride down to Colombia, I sat next to a bright young Colombian-American who manages his own polymer glass company. He has a PHD in polymer science and has taken some management courses to help fill his shoes. I compare my admiration for his successful career to the future that lies in front of me. I hope that when I pursue an MBA, I can meet that level of commitment and value myself as a real asset to any organization.

La Vista. Medellin, Colombia

Man it's poring out.

Thought I'd share this with you. What a view!

Fiat takes over Chrysler

In recent news, Fiat will purchase 20% of bankrupt automaker Chrysler, which received $15.5 Billion from the U.S. Treasury between Jan. 2 and May 27. The 20% stake may increase to 51%, assuming certain "milestones" are met. The deal also excludes "eight manufacturing sites, dozens of pieces of real estate, equipment leases and contracts with 789 U.S. auto dealerships."

President Obama will fulfill his promise of keeping 54,000 United Auto Workers employed. But for the dealerships, things don't look so good. 1,300 dealerships have closed shop during the past year, according to the Wall Street Journal. However, this means less competition for the surviving dealerships.

Now we get to GMAC.

GMAC became a bank on December 24, 2008, which allowed the corporation to receive $5 billion of TARP money right off the bat. Before it was the finance provider for GM, providing credit to 75% of GM dealers and helping buyers finance their purchases. According to the New York Times, GMAC needed an additional $11.5 billion (roughly half its equity) after reports came back from the stress tests that evaluated 19 banks. GMAC placed 17th, only in front of Bank of America and Wells Fargo

From a June 8 TIME article:

"If GM's only task were to make money, the company would shutter its car factories (or move them to low-cost countries) and churn out light trucks."

"His [Marchionne, CEO of Italy's Fiat] lowball--bid seems the wrong word--offer went like this: If the U.S. government would wipe out Chrysler's shareholders, buy out its bondholders, cut wages and jobs, deal with its retirement liabilities and fund the warranties, then Fiat would take a crack at Chrysler. The Italians would bring their cars to Chrysler's showrooms and share their advanced diesel technology with Chrysler engineers. Chrysler might sell some cars in Fiat's markets--Jeeps may have the best overseas appeal. Marchionne would lend his managerial chops. And if things worked out, Fiat would take a controlling share."

Trends in environmental awareness: Scratching the surface

Christopher Swain recently jumped in the Atlantic Ocean and is taking a 1000-mile swim from Marblehead, Massachusetts to Washington D.C. to promote environmental awareness. This is good. I mean, it's a step up from Zero the Hero coming to class on the 100th day of school and promoting Cheerios, but there is still marketing behind everything. In Christopher Swain's case, his website dirtyforswain.com, clearly holds a marketing deal with Timberland's Earthkeepers. The tag line for his campaign is "What will YOU do for Swain?" Clearly, based on what I'm looking at on this site, he wants us to follow him on Twitter, take pictures of his journey on Flickr, and buy some Timberland Earthkeepers! That's his message. Simple as that.

However, after diving into his Changents site with blogs on how to get involved and who's out there type of stuff, I realize that yes, of course, there ARE people doing things out there in the real world. But what's the point of this man swimming, other than to sell more Earthkeepers? The people who truly want to help save the environment are doing it and the Dirty for Swain campaign is not helping with this motive, besides inspiring kids who are in elementary and middle school. Let's face it people. We, as adults, can't all just shake off this Green movement by looking towards our kids and hoping they get the inspiration they need to someday fix our environmental problems. We, as adults, have to take responsibility. And no, that doesn't mean we must go buy the Earthkeepers for our family.

So far, this effort has not worked. If you look under the "Take Action" tab and select the United States as the location, you will find a whopping 2 posts in the forum. This is the result and this is the message. Why talk about someone who likes to swim the Atlantic Ocean when you can talk about launching a new Big Green Bus!? Why talk about either?

We are at the day when it should be very easy to navigate through networks and start local movements and to let leaders stand out among a level playing field. Are we sending the right message? Are we more connected from 10 years ago? Is it easier to find green movements in your neighborhood? Not in my neighborhood at least. Things are being done through self-motivation. Marketing can be such a powerful gathering tool if used to send the right message.

One problem is that Timberland doesn't want to reveal the solution of minimizing the impact of leather tanneries...Buy less leather. Instead, it has become a trend for Earthkeepers because that's how movements are run these days...through marketing and consumption and not through facilitated communication that really holds the power to make change happen.

Flossing

What other hygenic activity requires self-inflicting pain

Permanently deleting files from iTunes: Solution

Ok, I've struggled for the longest time on deleting songs from my iTunes library. In the past I've simply hit the delete button after highlighting the song and then watched it disappear. I never received the "Move to Recycle Bin" pop-up message and so consequently, the file was still being stored in its respective location (in my case, the G:/Music folder). It was like just hiding my dirty clothes under my bed for the rest of eternity. Not that smart.

So, for those of you who would like a clear answer on how to permanently delete files from iTunes, instead of hiding them under your bed, try this...

*First of all, I'm gonna say that this will only work if your music collection is conveniently located in one folder, i.e., G:/Music.

1. Rename your music folder to "iTunes"
2. Click on Edit > Preferences > Advanced. Under the iTunes Music Folder destination, click "Change" and add the new "iTunes" folder where all your music is located.
3. Now your music library will have to be re-assigned to the correct folder destination. I just deleted my entire library (keeping all files on my computer) and then added my new destination folder.

Now, anytime you try to delete a song from your iTunes library, it should ask if you wish to keep the file or move it to the Recycling Bin. This should also work for highlighting multiple files at the same time.

Annoying, but it works.

At the movies...

Imdb.com reports this weekends earnings of over $146 Million USD for the top ten user-rated films. This includes X-Men's Origin's Wolverine staking $85.1 Million at the box office. Al Gore's estimate for rebuilding a smart energy grid for America is right around the $400 Billion mark (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Smart_Grid). So, with the math, this equals out to 52 years of not going to the movies to account for the development of a national smart energy grid, an essential step in the road to alternative energy and the solution to the world's energy and diplomatic problems in the Middle East.

Learning the photoshop, (2008)